Let's overturn these tables

I’ve written twice before this year about church decline or growth in UK, USA and Australia. If you find stats boring, feel free to not read further.

But if you’re interested in trends for the future, there are some useful things we can learn,. from those who think the UK church is growing fast among young adults, and those who think the stories are exaggerated.

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Confusing stats

In Marcxh I outloined some statistics on church attendance that showed decline in Australia, USA and UK. I noted that younger people especially were voting with their feet – giving up the faith they were raised in, or quitting attending church while still being believers. But there were some signs of hope that many young adults were open to Christian faith or spirituality.

Then in June I reported the results of of a survey in UK which indicated that the signs of hope were coming to fruition. In a massive turnaround for the church in the UK, it seems that church attendance (especially among Catholic and Pentecostal churches) hyas increased 50% in 6 years, and Gen Z is now the second most likely demographic to attend church.

Everything looked good if you want to see people in church …. until doubts were raised.

Confessions of a revival sceptic

“The Church Mouse” analysed the data and pointed out that the survey recorded how many people said they were attending church regularly, not how many were recorded actually walking through the doors. Studies show there is a big difference. It only requires people to report that they attend church weekly, when they actually attend 3 weeks out of 4, and the result overstate attendance by 33%.

So there is a disparity between how much people think they attend and how much the churches record them as attending, and this may explain why the survey reported such a rise in attendance.

The Mouse concluded that church attendance is indeed rising in UK, but not nearly as fast as had been reported.

Growth isn’t uniform

Another reason why figures are confusing is that growth isn’t uniform. Some churches are growing very fast, others slowly, and others are in decline. It all depends on who you ask.

Here are a few stories of where growth is really encouraging. Hopefully we can learn something from these examples.

St Johns, Upper Norwood, London

St Johns Upper Norwood is a “High Anglican” church in suburban London. You’d probably expect its attendances to be slowly declining, because that what’s been happening to most churches. But it seems to be vibrant, alive and growing.

Apparently a significant source of its growth has been a number of non-traditional activities:

• 400 people now attend a weekday toddlers and parents group for faith based play and worship;
• “Messy Church”, a monthly Sunday non-traditional church gathering, where about 400 adults and young people meet for activities and worship;
• “Messy meals” where around 80 people meet weekly to eat and pray, and share in a deeper understanding of each others lives.

The church holds traditional liturgical Sunday services morning and evening, together with the sort of childrens and youth programs you’d expect. But perhaps less usual are “concerts, a weekly community lunch, a refugee café, toddler play sessions, a gardening group, meditation, and more.

The church seems to place a strong emphasis on community – offering a place for those looking for connection and serving the community via meals, activities and help available to all.

HTB network

I’ve written more extensively about the HTB network, but it is worth mentioning here.

Beginning with the Holy Trinity Brompton church in central London and spreading far and wide throughout UK, these churches are moderately charismatic and have a strong emphasis on young adults, contemporary music and social welfare programs to the homeless, the poor and refugees, and into prisons.

More than 180 churches are now part of the network, most being existing churches that have been “revitalised” by a team coming from another church in the network, and bringing youth and enthusiasm to a congregation that may have otherwise been in decline.

It is hard to find current numbers on growth in these churches, but it was reported in 2017 that a number of London churches had grown 10 times over a decade and 20 times over an unspecified period. About a third hadn’t attended church for a long time, if at all.

The network isn’t without its critics, being accused of over-simplifying the faith to make it more acceptable, forcing a new style of worship on churches, having too much power and influence in the Church of England and growing at neighbouring churches’ expense.

Despite all this, the HTB network provides a model of how church growth can be achieved via conversion of young adults.

Pentecostal churches

Several surveys over the past decade show that the fastest growing group of churches, often the only growing churches, are Pentecostal – Vineyard, Elim and several other churches.

Immigrants from Africa may explain some of this growth, but there are other important factors. Apparently almost all the denominations that were growing in 2022 were established since 1900 and are strongly “evangelical” while the denominations that are in decline are older and less evangelical. (But as noted in my last assessment, things may have turned around for some denominations since then.)

Example: Elim Pentecostal Church

The Elim churches began in the Welsh revival in 1915 and have grown steadily (with a couple of blips) since then. They are Pentecostal and evangelical, with an emphasis on the gifts of the Holy Spirit especially healing, a strong commitment to mission and discipling of new believers.

The attendance numbers have been modelled mathematically and analysed and this suggests that Elim churches have the following characterisitcs that tend to lead to growth:

• There is a high level of enthusiasm and commitment among members.
• There is a strong focus on mission (evangelism), church planting and helping converts become strong disciples.
• The Holy Spirit emphasis gives them a “spirit of revival”.
• When church growth stagnated in the 1970s, they apparently “learnt from churches in renewal, modernised their approach, and seriously engaged with their communities.”

Other fast-growing churches

• The fastest growing churches in UK are apparently Cantonese-speaking Chinese congregations, partially fuelled by immigration from Hong Kong. “For people arriving from Hong Kong, the church becomes a family, a community, as well as a place of worship.”
• The Catholic Church is showing some signs of growth, perhaps due to Eastern European Catholics emigrating to England, but also because Gen Z are attending in greater numbers.

Lessons to learn

1. Decline is predictable in some denominations

A number of more traditional denominations are declining so fast that, unless there is an amazing turnaround, their demise within two or three decades is almost certain. We can guess that these denominations contain many members by birth rather than conversion and have lost most of their missionary enthusiasm. These churches were once vibrant and growing, so there are lessons here other denominations can learn from before it is too late.

2. Balanced programs

Successful churches don’t just maintain their services, as they’ve always done, but have a strong focus on both evangelism and community service. Upper Norwood, Elim and the HTB churches all illustrate this.

3. Try something new

There is evidence that most successful churches didn’t depend on tradition alone. Most growing churches don’t have long histories, many emphasise the Holy Spirit bringing newness, and most are willing to try something new to meet contemporary needs. In this way they are more likely to appeal to young adults.

Main photo: Messy Church, Upper Norwood, London, from the Church of England website.

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